21: Arm up against the AI Job Destruction

There is no easy way to say this but white collar jobs are in peril.

A friend from a top Silicon Valley law firm says ChatGPT4.0o is currently more useful than his first year associates (starting salary at at least $200k). Says, sure, makes a lot of mistakes, but not more than the associate with good prompting. Says hourly-billing business model will be decimated along with the juniors. (Also says all legal AI wrappers suck and the whole thing is going to be trillions vs. trillions, not some millions startup).

My lower back was giving me trouble. Went to see a doctor, and got an x-ray. Got the thing diagnosed, and was pain-free after one month of physical therapy. I uploaded my x-ray and my problems to the machine and bypassed the guardrails by pretending to be a physician. Gave me an almost exact diagnosis, and almost exact physical therapy routine.

This is today. Coders, designers, musicians, writers; how worried you must be. Most your work is done already. AI will truly create oligopolistic stratified societies. Zuck at top and his lieutenants commanding a trillion dollar infrastructure. Folks doing blue collar stuff. And a vast majority of humans living off of basic income from Zuck charity. Perhaps with life-sustaining liquids through the IV and a virtual reality (some have been calling it the Matrix since 1999) where they are their own gods. So win/win, perhaps. I still having figured out who Zuck will sell to for that trillion. Lots to figure out philosophically, give me some time - the secondary and tertiary effects are unfathomable.

Fueled by economic realities, worries about AI replacing office jobs, and a desire for security and good wages, Gen Z is increasingly choosing skilled trades and blue-collar careers over traditional college paths burdened by debt.

Let me throw an idea at you: Be a technician for the power industry. Should pay better than being a carpenter because you are dealing with things of beauty that only a handful companies can manufacture. They last a long long time but need maintenance. Also, the robots make carpent (is that a word) sooner than touching these machines. Just saying...

AI with its growing hunger[1] for more power will displace many industries and jobs[2]. Servicing the needs of the power industry will not only remain unaffected but the demand for it will increase exponentially[3].

Finding specialized workforce for these services in the US is extremely hard due to competition and shrinking of the talent pool (due to retirement and non-replenishment)[4].

Taking the fuel costs out of the variable cost [5], I calculate the total amount spent on Operations and Maintenance [6] annually in the US as $55 billion (=~4bn MWH x $13). Dismantling, Installation, Commissioning, Equipment Sales Services, etc. should add another $10 billion per year in the US alone. That's a huge market for Operations and Maintenance of power plants and equipment.

Geee, I wish there was a play for me here. Stay tuned ;-).

[1] https://www.goldmansachs.com/intelligence/pages/AI-poised-to-drive-160-increase-in-power-demand.html

[2] https://www.goldmansachs.com/intelligence/pages/generative-ai-could-raise-global-gdp-by-7-percent.html

[3] Between now and 2030, domestic data center electricity consumption is expected to grow anywhere from 6.5 percent to 7.5 percent (335 terawatt-hours to 390 terawatt-hours).https://www.us.jll.com/en/trends-and-insights/research/data-center-outlook

[4] One example is evidenced in the NREL report  on U.S. Hydropower Workforce: Challenges and Opportunities. https://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy23osti/83817.pdfFinding specialized workforce for these services in the US is extremely hard due to competition and shrinking of the talent pool (due to retirement and non-replenishment).

[5]

[6]