3. On Intentionality, Conviction and Quitting

Dear Co-creator;

The best entrepreneurs and investors are those who say no all the time. They have internalized the concept of opportunity cost. Saying yes is awesome, life-affirming and uplifting. But saying no helps survive for many future yesses. Intentionality, one of my favorite concepts as you already know, dictates that we say yes and no with a purpose. Today, I want to lay down our quitting methodology. Knowing when to quit, eg. saying no to your baby, may look like a loss of conviction and our hero-culture disdains that. But saying no is really having a conviction that you are smart, you base decisions on rationality and data.

Setting up the right methodology for kill decisions, therefore, will save your life.

Pivot Decisions

• As I wrote in the previous newsletter, we need at least 1,000 co-creators in our community so that when we source important decisions the community produces at least 100 data points at 10% participation. This is one of the reasons I am bullish about a co-creation community that does together and learn together. But if we don’t reach such a number in 60-days, then the model fails somehow. I wouldn’t necessarily kill the effort but change it considerably.

• We will have five ideas, research and validate them and present them to the community in the form of an Investment Memorandum by August 1. I want a 75% super majority with 50% quorum on whatever we take to the next level. Failing this will have us look at the reasons and pivot accordingly.

We don’t have the plan just yet, so I can’t give you the kill methods just yet but failing to achieve user acquisition metrics (traction) will always guide our kill decisions in the future. Remember, we have many outs and therefore no regrets. Life of the startup and that of the entrepreneur will continue, reincarnated – nothing dies per se, just converts.

Some updates

• I am trying to add world class doer educators to our community, so you don’t get bored of my voice.

• Working on partnerships and newsletter marketing (gotta have the 1,000).

• Wrote about the bank idea before, today I will ramble about some healthcare ideas. Next time will be for carbon balance and climate tech. An education idea may be coming.

Have you heard of the term Burden of Knowledge?

The genesis of human intellectual progress does not transpire instantaneously at the precipice of knowledge; rather, it takes time for us to approach such a juncture. As we propel the frontier of knowledge ever forward, the attainment thereof becomes an increasingly protracted endeavor for successive generations. Economist Benjamin Jones aptly denotes this phenomenon as the "burden of knowledge." The more we know, the more the next generation must learn to contribute at the cutting edge.

Burden of Knowledge is one of the reasons why healthcare costs have been skyrocketing. The exponential escalation of costs in healthcare can be partially attributed to the escalating demand for highly skilled personnel, including individuals holding doctoral degrees (PhDs), medical doctors (MDs), nurses, and other specialized healthcare practitioners who have a huge Burden of Knowledge before them every single year. Contrast their burden to those of engineers. An electrical engineer who designs semiconductors for Intel starts with tools that already abstracted so many layers. A doctor cannot abstract a human body that easily – has to start at the level her ancestors started millennia ago.

Of particular concern is the observation that the cost of skilled labor is surging at a pace far exceeding the rate of inflation. However, as artificial intelligence (AI) progresses in its capacity to function as a proficient technical expert, opportunities arise to augment the capabilities of our existing healthcare providers, thereby enabling the delivery of care at significantly reduced expenditures. If AI can be integrated with empathy, it holds the potential to foster patient engagement, ensure adherence to clinical recommendations, and alleviate the burden of burnout experienced by clinicians.

A second noteworthy advantage stemming from cost reduction is the concurrent amelioration of issues related to healthcare access and quality. As AI assumes a more pervasive role in healthcare delivery, it possesses the capacity to democratize healthcare, rendering superior healthcare services accessible to all individuals. By harnessing AI's potential, patients are more likely to receive accurate diagnoses and treatment plans in a timelier manner, thereby enhancing overall healthcare outcomes and reducing performance disparities.

Furthermore, AI's influence in the realm of therapeutic development is expected to be instrumental in achieving cost reduction and improving patient outcomes. In this context, AI assumes a pivotal role as a catalyst for unraveling the intricacies of biology, analogous to the fundamental role played by calculus in the field of physics. AI surpasses human capabilities in comprehending the complex nature of biology, which far exceeds the bounds of complete human understanding. Presently, AI models of human disease are emerging, offering valuable insights into the development of highly effective drugs that can be expedited to market with reduced failure rates. In essence, AI possesses the ability to comprehend biology in a manner that surpasses the aptitude of human scientists. This paradigm shift facilitates the scalability of research endeavors, extending beyond the current reliance on fortuitous discoveries stemming from labor-intensive hours spent by humans in laboratories.

There are many healthcare AI startups out there already (I am following Hippocratic AI, Bayesian Health, Insitro, BioAge among many). And some crazy ideas still need some time but we will start soon. So what do we do?

True AI doctor is not there yet, and the industry is heavily regulated. There are however some pockets where we can play.

Off-label citizen science in healthcare or holistic medicine, supplements, etc.

You see, I went to medical school for a year (long story). So I fancy myself as a fake doctor of some sorts who could at least have some agency over his own body. And I run all kinds of experiments on myself (read about my Rapamycin longevity experiment here). And I know there are many people like me, and let’s call them citizen scientists (and not crazy wacks, please). There are no platforms for these folks, and an AI-guided platform would make me pay money. Imagine a clinical trial of some sort, on our platform, where 1,000 Oltac’s do what I just did on my own. AI picks some good targets, guides citizen scientists in the effort and disseminate their protocols etc, and we (may) solve problems via the crazy crowds while also providing healthcare to them. Rapamycin too hardcore? Well how about natural remedies via the same science-driven trials? One doesn’t need a doctor to use cinnamon for diabetes per se. Can we design an AI Medicine Man rather than a Doctor to push the boundaries a bit?

Or maybe our healthcare idea is in psychology?

Chatbots are becoming more human-like and empathetic, and they can offer us judgment-free friendship and a safe space to speak freely. Chatbots can be better at providing companionship than providing facts, and that they can invoke emotions by asking us probing questions. I believe AI companions will soon become commonplace. Add an android body (from the workshop of a friend) to it and maybe a psychologist chatbot? Thousands of people are IN LOVE with their Replikas.

That’s it for today, folks. Forward this email to your friends. We need 900 more folks for our experiment. Send comments, questions, ideas. Jump in to our Slack and interact there.

Let’s be intentional about how we start and we (may) end. Love to you and yours, Oltac

ps. The featured picture is created by MidJourney 5.2 from prompt “Artificial Intelligence, Apocalypse.” And no, you are not falling behind if you don’t do the following 9 AI things immediately asdflkjadlfkajsdflkjad;-). 3